As a close watcher of generational trends in the workplace, I noted with interest that Randstad came out with its latest World of Work 2008 report, detailing changes in workplace attitudes among different demographic groups. This is one of the first good data points that we have to test whether Millennials (b.1981-2000) are as fundamentally different from previous generations in the workplace as many people (including myself) believe, or whether their well-publicized expectations around work experience and technology are simply a byproduct of a relatively strong job market, and subject to change in the event of an economic downturn. Since we are now teetering on the brink of a recession, this is a good time to see if attitudes have changed.

According to the Randstat report, 57% of Millennials in the survey say now is a good time to look for a job that pays more, down from 60% last year and 65% in 2005. A whopping 73% of Millennials now think it is a good idea to take on extra work, up from 57% in 2007. Several measures of job satisfaction are up, indicating that Millennial expectations are starting to align more closely to workplace realities.

Randstad concludes that Millennials are starting to behave more like older workers as economic pressures start to squeeze “Generation Debt,” but that conclusion is not entirely supported by their data. For example, 45% of Millennials still see this as a good time to change careers, up from last year, and the number saying that now is a good time to look for more interesting and fulfilling work is at 58%, down only slightly from 60% in 2007. Across several metrics, Millennials are tops among all cohorts surveyed in their willingness to change jobs, and the most optimistic about the prospects for getting hired elsewhere if they move on.

Personally, I am not inclined to believe that anything but a severe and extended economic downturn will impact the structural sellers market for skills and young talent that employers will face over the next decade and a half. Here’s why:

·         Recessions come and go; demographics are long term. Everyone single member of the job market of 2020 has already been born. There are no more to come. So projections about the long-term labor market are fixed from the supply side (give or take changes in workforce participation rates), whereas demand is uncertain. Organizations still have to think long-term about retention, loyalty, the costs of turnover, and development of management talent, which will become especially scarce given the relatively small number of GenXers moving up to replace Boomers in higher-level responsibilities. Bottom line: there will still be competition for talented Millennials, even in a slow labor market.

·         The demand is for skills, not people. Businesses that derive their competitive advantage from knowledge creation can tighten their belts only so far, because their ability to execute and innovate depends on having the right people in the right roles. Savvy Millennials offer the job market skills, not just labor.

·         Millennials have already factored in expectations of turmoil. Strategically-educated Millennials have prepared for this kind of job market from birth; indeed, many of the eldest were born in the midst of the last severe recession in the US in the early 1980s. Even if finding a well-paying job becomes relatively more difficult, they may still prioritize the better job experience, recognizing that this is more critical to their long-term career growth.

·         Young labor is cheap labor. Recent studies have shown organizations are paying more and more to older and older workers, perhaps as a last-ditch knowledge retention effort to stave off a crippling wave of retirements. If I'm a bottom-line-focused company looking to trim short term expenses, the large salaries and benefits of senior workers present a more tempting target for cuts than relatively low-paid junior-level workers eager to be fast-tracked into higher levels of responsibility.  

Debt-ridden and inexperienced Millennials may face a recession with some anxiety and feel pressure to compromise their expectations in the short-term. However, they have many more assets to withstand a down labor market relative to most others in the economy, including the ability to move back in with parents. It may not be long before economic conditions actually sharpen demand for the skills, attitudes and productivity that young workers bring to the workplace, even at the expense of more experienced workers. The minute that scenario materializes, Millennials will integrate it into their mindset. Will that make them less picky or less demanding? I doubt it.